25 January 2010

Mortgage Market Murder, My Dear Reader


I've discovered a way to post blogs from my iPhone, dear Reader! So I can now address you collectively from time to time with my economic and political observations, the first of which is linked above.

Did you know a flock of crows is a murder? When I think of you collectively, dear Readers, I think it's fair to call you a murder, although stylistically I prefer the more intimiate "dear Reader" which better conveys my sentiment and regard for your time.

At any rate, observe the link and here are my thoughts:
We've been headed this way for a while, and at some point the training wheels will need to come of the bicycle of the mortgage markets. One can look at this as calamitous--yields are likely to rise, along with them rates, and with no new money in the system prices will have to fall further.

But here's what the pundits miss: with rates higher and prices lower, the following people will be the only ones able to transact--strong income, high down payment buyers who waited. That's exactly the profile of the buyers one wants to have to stabilize the market.

So while there will be pain, the only way to move past it, as I've heard once or twice, will be to breathe through it, relax, and let the market fall (and rates rise) to a level that is sustainable by new buyers who aren't flush with government cash.

For a long time I imagined this blog would be place for me to comment on economics. It's a subject I love as much as Armani. I invite you, dear Reader, to query me at your leisure. I'm happy to have a subject on which to expostulate.

Sable Crow


Jennifer said...

Thank you! I've been trying to explain this to people. You can't manipulate the market into stability. You need strong consumers, not artificially propped up consumers.

cyberob151 said...

Whenever you subsidize a market you end up with inefficiencies. As we have seen the government has been doing a lot of subsidizing lately. And it is argued that it had to, to stave off a depression. Without government backing mortgage yields and rates will surely rise. Home prices have been artificially inflated for a long time so perhaps these "real" rates will in turn propagate "real" prices. There will be pain, but we can't keep putting it off.